TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN KWARA STATE (A CASE STUDY OFFA NEPA DISTRICT OFFICE FROM 2001-2015)


TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN KWARA STATE (A CASE STUDY OFFA NEPA DISTRICT OFFICE FROM 2001-2015)  

TABLE OF CONTENT

COVER PAGE 

APPROVAL PAGE 

DEDICATION 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

TABLE OF CONTENT

1.1 INTRODUCTION

1.2 BACKGROUND AND ITS OPERATION 

1.3 SIGNIFICANCE

1.4 SCOPE OF STUDY

1.5 AIMS AND OBJECTIVE 

1.6 PROBLEMS AND LIMITATION OF STUDY 

1.7 DEFINITION OF TERMS 

1.8 ABBREVIATION USED

CHAPTER TWO 

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS 

2.2 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 

2.3 IMPORTANCE OF TIME SERIES 

2.4 NATURE OF TIME SERIES 

2.5 CHARACTERISTICS OF TIME SERIES 

2.6 TIME SERIES MODELS 

2.7 OTHER COMPONENT OF THE TIME SERIES MODEL 

2.8 AUTO REGRESSIVE MODEL

2.8.1 FIRST ORDER AND SECOND ORDER OF REGRESSIVE MODEL

2.8.2 COMPUTATION OF ESTIMATE 

2.8.3 YULE PROCESS AR(2) PARAMETER PROCESS 

2.8.4 AUTO CORRELATION FUNCTION FOR AR(2)

2.8.5 FOURIER ANALYSIS 

2.8.6 SPECTRUM OF A TIME SERIES 

2.8.7. PERIODIOGRAM

2.8.8 CORRELATIONS

2.8.9 IMPORTANCE OF CORRELATION 

CHAPTER THREE 

METHODOLOGY 

3.0 THEMED OF ESTIMATING TREND 

3.1 LEAST SQUARE METHOD 

3.2 MOVING AVERAGE METHOD 

3.3 SEMI-MOVING AVERAGE METHOD 

3.4 FREE HAND METHOD

3.5 ESTIMATION OF SEASONAL VARIATION

3.6 SIMPLE AVERAGE METHOD

3.7 PERCENTAGE TREND METHOD

3.8 RATIO TO MOVING AVERAGE 

3.9 FORECASTING 

3.9.0 SHORT TERM FORECASTING 

3.9.1 INTERMEDIATE FORECASTING     

3.9.2. LONG TERM FORECASTING 

3.9.4 GENERALIZED TEST OF HYPOTHESIS 

CHAPTER FOUR 

4.1 ANALYSIS OF DATA 

CHAPTER FIVE 

5.1 SUMMARY OF FINDING 

5.2 CONCLUSION 

5.3 RECOMMENDATION 

5.4 BIBLIOGRAPHY

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION 

The primary aim of National Electrical Power Authority (NEPA) is in cardinal point which is to generate, transmission, distribution and sales electricity within and outside country. 

National Electric Power Authority NEPA can be regarded as heart beat of the nation economy as the operation of machines use in industries and most household equipment depend on electricity. 

Today National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) meets total maximum energy demand from the total installed capacity of the Authority power station which is 600mw, the terminal power station are strategically located at Egbin, Ijora, Delta Ugheli, Sapele and Afan, while the hydro power station generate are located at Kanji, Jebba and Shoro, the terminal power station generate electricity for exportation into grid system. 

As part of the positive effort of NEPA to ensure the electricity generated reach the appropriate quarters in the next millennium, it has put in place 11,000km of transmission line running across the nation. 

Many researchers had previous carried out research work on NEPA, on some aspect of electricity consumption with related objective. Individual article and study of NEPA, they have put forward many analysis and suggestion basically on consumption, supply and distribution of electricity. 

According to Chief A.O. Osho of AbuleEgba Community in Lagos State, put up a protest on behalf of the community in the daily times of “21st of March 1991” WHY DO WE HAVE INCENSANT POWER FAILURE, Mr. MuyiwaOtunowo (P.R.O) Nepa Lagos South directorable through a booklet title “planning ahead of NEPA” answered the question he said NEPA plans ahead a very much so to meet adequate constant and supply of electricity, the future demand must be known since we can not produce and store electricity. The national electricity as can be done to most of consumer goods or water. 

A journal, “an energy improving generation and distribution” with the dismal state of power supply in the country, it is very necessary that we must continue to explore means to boosting power generation, transmission and distribution, a journal on energy March 25th 1996. Another study is that of Mr. Shuaib I.A. 1985 written on Statistical Analysis on the Consumption of Electricity in Kwara State from 1976 – 1985, he aim in creating a format for planning and forecast future electricity consumption. 

The regression equation showing units of electricity consumption which was consumedImageuse to predict 1986, 1987, though there is an increase in consumption of electricity still the prediction is inconsistent due to lack of variation. 

1.2 NEPA AND ITS OPERATION (BACKGROUND) 

The management of the Nigeria power system is a monopoly vested in the National Electricity Power Authority [NEPA] , its main objective is to generate, transmit and distribute electric power throughout the nation. 

The National Electric Power Authority [NEPA] was established by Decree 24 of April 1972 in an amalgamation of two bodies, the Electricity Co-operation of Nigeria [ECN] and the Niger Dam Authority [NDA] that were healthier to responsible for generating and distributing electricity power, the Nigeria power system consist of total eight (8) power station, five (5) terminal, three (3) hydro with a total installed capacity of 600mw, interconnected over a network of 330kv transmission line. Transmission of bulk power to the major load center are supply with power at 132kv (of which there is a total of 83132kv substation) from where the voltage is still transformed to further low level [33kv, 11kv, 66kv, 3.3kv] for distribution. 

The ECN and NDA later give birth to NEPA, by the virtual of that decree, NEPA was mandated to maintain the efficient co-ordination and economic system of electricity supply for the whole nation. 

The National Electric Power Authority came to Ilorin office was responsible for supply of electricity to the whole of Kwara State. The District office comprises of account department, computer department, marketing department, engineering department, e.t.c. with their respective heads. 

The district office is headed by District Manager and the consumer are classify into three groups, the residential consumer, the commercial consumer, and the industrial consumer. 

1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY 

This project is to highlight the uses of statistics and its techniques in analyzing data in respect of electricity, and forecast the future consume two pattern. 

1.4 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 

The study deal with consumption of electricity in Kwara State Ilorin undertaking. The data available is that of units consumed in [KWHX 10] between 1989 – 2003. The data was extracted from account and sales department of NEPA Ilorin Districts office. 

1.5 AIMS AND OBJECTIVE 

i. To identify and fit model for the study and forecast monthly value for it. 

ii. To test the variation with the year 

iii. To test for the average consumption of electricity on monthly basis. 

iv. To analyze time series of monthly power consumption in Kwara State [Ilorin undertaking]. 

1.6 PROBLEM AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY 

There are many limitation that hinder the extent at which research can carried out one of which is inadequacies of textbook especially relating to the topic. Another problem encountered is the negative attitude of the management of the chosen case study, feeling reluctant to supply accurate record of the authority. 

1.7 DEFINITION OF TERMS 

⦁ Consumer: Any person or corporate body supply with electricity by the NEPA. 

⦁ Residential Domesic Consumer: A consumer who use the premises exclusive as a residence house. 

⦁ Commercial consumer: A consumer who use his premises for any purpose other than exclusively as a residence or as a factory for manufacturing goods. 

⦁ Industrial consumer: A consumer who use it for manufacturing goods e.g. global soap and detergent company. 

1.8 ABBREVIATION USED 

N.E.P.A – National Electricity Power Authority 

E.C.N – Electricity Corporation of Nigeria 

N.D.A – Niger Dam Authority 

M.W. – Mega Watt 

K.V. – Kilo-Volt 

.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN KWARA STATE (A CASE STUDY OFFA NEPA DISTRICT OFFICE FROM 2001-2015)



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