THE OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND OIL SECTOR STOCK PRICES IN NIGERIA
This study investigates the impact of oil price shocks on oil sector stock prices in Nigeria using a high frequency data between January 2000 to December 2010. The empirical results indicates that no significant effect of oil price is found on oil sector stock prices but there are significant effects of such macroeconomic variables as interest rate, exchange rate and real gross domestic product on oil sector stock prices in Nigeria.
Therefore the volatility in oil price does not necessarily influence the movement of oil sector stock prices in Nigeria.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY
The changing international oil market has posed great concerns for Nigeria’s fiscal outlook. The global financial crisis has led to slow growth across the world’s economies, resulting in lower demand for commodities, especially oil. This impact has been transmitted through several sources to the Nigerian economy, especially through oil price fluctuations and stock market dynamics due to the reappraisal for planned investments or complete stoppage of previously committed programmes of investment. However, the speculative behaviour and investment activities have helped to buy up crude oil prices internationally, the reality of the global recession is beginning to be fully appreciated across the globe. The adverse impact of the crisis is more evident and direct on international prices of oil and the world capital market. The recent movements of oil prices are apparent in their unprecedented decline from record of about US$147/barel in July 2008 to about $50/barrel in January 2009 while the daily basket price has hovered between $38and $44.
The impact of falling oil prices on stock market differs from country to country depending on whether the country is an oil-exporter or oil-importer. In an oil-exporting country, a rise in world oil prices improves the trade balance, leading to a higher current account surplus and an improving net foreign asset position. At the same time, increase in oil prices tends to increase private disposable income in oil-exporting countries. This increases corporate profitability, at the same time raises domestic demand and stock prices. In oil-importing countries, the process works broadly in reverse: trade deficit are offset by weaker growth and, over time, stock prices decrease (Abdelaziz et. al., 2008)
This development in the global economy, which has posed great challenge to policy makers across countries, is as a result of the increasing spate of fluctuations in the price of oil. The price of crude oil, which had stayed between $2.50 and $3 since
1948, rose from $3 per bbl in 1972 to $12 per bbl by the end of 1974, and from $14 per bbl in 1978 to $35 per bbl in 1981. The price of oil, went below $10 per bbl in 1986, but surged again to between US $18 and $23 in 1990’s. it crossed the US$40 mark in 2004; and rose to about US$60 from 2005 during the summer of 2007, the price of one barrel of crude oil jumped above US $70 and even crossed the US$145 mark in July 2008. The price staggered to US$80.50 in October 2009 and remained at an average of US$75 till August 2010.
An oil price change (increase), all things being equal, should be considered good news in oil exporting countries and bad news in oil importing countries, while the reverse should be expected when the oil price decreases (Ayadi, 2005). The challenge, however, of the combined effect of hikes in oil prices on economic growth for oil producing nations like Nigeria is really enormous. Huge inflow of oil revenues in Nigeria is more often associated with expansion in the level of government spending while periods of dwindling oil revenues are usually accompanied by budget deficits. There is no gain saying that Nigeria relies so much on revenue from oil exports but it equally massively imports refined petroleum and other related products. Evidence, for instance, shows that government spending, which before1999 remained well below N0.5 trillion, hit N1.02 trillion mark in 2001 and N1.5 trillion in 2004. The figures for 2006 and 2007 stood at N2.04 and N2.5 trillion respectively.
Since discovery of oil in a commercial quantity in Nigeria, oil has dominated the economy especially in Nigeria hence oil accounts for more than 90- percent of Nigeria’s exports, 25 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and 80 percent of its government total revenues. Thus, a small oil price changes can have a large impact o the economy hence oil price shocks. For instance, a US $1 increase in the oil price in the early 1990s increased Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings by about US$650 million (2 percent of GDP) and its public revenues by US$320 million a year. Nigeria’s reliance on oil production for income generation clearly has serious implications for its economy. Secondly, oil is an important commodity in the economy of any country in the world because it is a major source of energy for domestic and industrial commodity. Changes in the prices of either the crude oil or any of the end
products are expected to have impact on users and the nation at large. Oil prices traditionally have been ore volatile than many other commodity or asset prices.
However, it has been observed that the recent global economy melt down also contributed in the oil price shocks which has more adverse effect on oil importing countries than exporting countries. At the beginning of the crisis, oil price crashed below $40/b in the world market, which had serious consequences on Nigeria fiscal budget that led to the downward review of the budget oil benchmark price. Today oil price is oscillating between $60/b and $75/b.
Oil price shocks which are predominantly defined with respect to price fluctuations resulting from changes in either the demand or supply side of the international oil market (Hamilton, 1983; Wakeford, 2006). These changes have been traditionally traced to supply side disruptions. Two issues are identified regarding the shocks; first is the magnitude of the price increase, which can be quantified, in absolute terms or as percentage changes. Each of the shocks had connections with some movements in key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. For instance, the 1973- 74, 1979-80, and 2003-2006 periods were associated with price increases while the oil market collapse of 1986 is an episode of price decrease. During the first oil shock in Nigeria (1973-74), the value of terms of trade rising from 18.9 in 1982 to 65.3 by 1974. Government revenue, which stood at 8 percent of GDP in 1972 rose to about 20 percent in 1975. This resulted in increased government expenditure owing largely from the need to monetize the crude oil receipts. Investment was largely in favour of education, public health, transport, and import substituting industries (Nnanna and Masha, 2003). During the oil price shock of 2003-2006, Nigeria recorded increases in the share of oil in GDP from about 80 percent in 2003 to 82.6 percent in 2005. The shock was gradual and persisted for a while. This could be regarded as a permanent shock. The result of the shock was a favourable investment climate, increased national income within the period although a slight decline was observed in the growth rate of GDP.
The concerns regarding how rapidly the global financial crisis penetrated the Nigerian capital market, especially given that there is hardly any thriving domestic mortgage market in Nigeria is to be considered as one among the factors that affects
stock markets. The decline of indicators of activities on the NSE before the escalation of the crisis on the global scene became a source of concern for many. Emerging facts reveal that the crisis may have been made evident in the capital market through various channels. Foreign portfolio investment withdrawals and withholdings in order to service financial problems at the foreign investors’ home, as well as prospects of reduced FDI, are bound to affect investor confidence in the economic health of Nigeria. Evidence on the foreign portfolio withdrawals shows that the total financial inflows to Nigeria between 2007 and 2008 increased by 21%, while that between 2008 and 2009 was predicted to reduce by 38.6%. In a globalised world, transactions are carried out in different countries in integrated markets. The world has over the past two decades towards liberalization, although not well integrated into the world market, have been facing serious destabilizing effects in the past years especially since the emergence of the global financial crisis in July 2008. The capital market has been shrinking; major international hedge funds have been withdrawn; and the international credit line has faded out of loadable funds for domestic industry. Market capitalization fell by 45.8% in 2008, a sharp reversal of growth from 2007, when the market grew by 74.7% (Okereke-Onyiuke, 2009).
Stock market plays a very crucial role in assessing economic conditions of any country through improved stock returns usually signified by higher profit to firms. This consequently engenders economic growth and vice versa.
Basically stock exchange market serves as a channel through which surplus funds are moved from Lender-Savers to Borrower-Spenders who have shortages of funds (Mishkin 2000). Based on this premise, volatility in stock prices can significantly affect the performance of the financial sector as well as the entire economy. However understanding the origins of stock market dynamics has long been a topic of considerable interest to policy makers and financial analysts.
Policy makers are interested in the main determinants of these changes and its spillover effects on real activities. Financial analysts on other hand are interested in the direct effects time-varying dynamics exerts on the pricing and hedging of more exotic derivatives. In both cases, forecasting stock market dynamics constitutes a
formidable challenge but also a fundamental instrument to manage the risks faced by these institutions (Corradi, Distaso and Mele 2009).
The financial position of an economy that is mainly determined by the capital market is susceptible to its foreign exchange volatility. Also, the internationalization of capital markets has resulted in inflow of vast sums of funds between countries and in the cross listing of equities. This has therefore made investors and firms more interested in the volatility of exchange rate through oil price and its effects on stock market. Floating exchange rate appreciation reduces the competitiveness of export markets; and has a negative effect on the
domestic stock market (Yucel and Kurt, 2003). But, for import dependent economy like Nigeria, it may have positive effects on the stock market by lowering input costs.
Historically, in 1960, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) was formed and known as the Lagos Stock Exchange. In December 1977 it was renamed as The Nigerian Stock Exchange. Currently, The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) consists of six branches and the Head Office is situated Lagos. The Trading System on the NSE is fully automatic. It recorded its annual market capitalization of N5.1billion in 1988 and ever since has continued to increase until 1997 when it dropped to N276.3 billion from N279.8 billion in 1996 and reduced further by N19.5 billion in 1998. Thereafter, it has been following an upward trend that got to its peak of N10, 301 billion in 2007 and later crumbled to N3343.5 billion in 2008 (CBN Statistical Bulletin, 2008).
PERFORMANCE OF THE NIGERIAN CAPITAL MARKET
An evaluation of the performance of the Nigerian Capital Market was accessed using some of the generally accepted criteria, which include:
(i) Number of listed companies;
(ii) Number of listed securities;
(iii) Size of the market or market capitalization; and
(iv) All-share price index, which is a measure of the performance of the market.
The analysis of the major indicators of activity in the capital market showed that the market has experienced remarkable progress since 1986. Transactions in equities in the market based on its current level of development could be considered to be
weakly formed as the level of information dissemination and processing to influence market behavior remained weak. However, with the computerization of trading and increased transparency in delivery of corporate information, the market has become more efficient. Transactions in the market recorded in crews in the number of listed securities, companies, market capitalization and price index during the period under review. The improved performance of all four key indicators was traceable largely to the establishment of the second-tier securities market (SSM) in 1985 and the deregulation of interest rates in 1987, coupled with the privatization of some government owned companies in Nigeria. Furthermore, the deregulation of interest rates made many private enterprises/ investors to patronise equity market to source funds as bank lending became relatively more expensive. The number of companies listed on the exchange (equities) grew by 95.0 per cent from 100 at the beginning of 1988 to 195 at the end of December 1999. The number of total securities listed and traded also increased from 244 in 1987 to a peak of 276 in 1996 before declining to 268 in 1999. Some of the major securities traded on the market during the period were government development stocks, corporate bond, debentures and equities. As at the end of December 1999, securities listed and traded on the market were made up of 15 government bonds, 58 corporate bonds/debentures and 195 equities. The growth of listed companies coupled with greater awareness on the part of investors resulted in increase in the number of securities issued and traded in the market. This also contributed to the increase in market capitalisation, which grew from 8.3 billion or 7.6 percent of GDP in 1987 to 294.1 billion or 8.7 percent of GDP at the end of 1999. The number of listed companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange is comparable with those of many emerging markets. Though capital listing was higher than in most stock markets in Africa, it fell below some other emerging markets of Asia and Latin America. For example, out of the 17 stock markets in Africa, Nigeria had the third largest number of equity listings of 183 in 1998, surpassed only by Egypt (650) and South Africa (642). Nigeria also had a higher number than Poland (143), Jordan (139), Argentina (136) and Venezuela (91). It, however, recorded fewer listings compared to India (5,843), Brazil (536); Malaysia (780); Indonesia (282) and Turkey (257). Further insight into the performance of the market showed that share-price indices rose within
the period of early 2000. The observed upward trend of share prices in the stock market was an indication of relative prosperity in the economy. The all-share price index grew by 22 per cent in 1988,38 percent in 1990, 33.9 percent in 1995 but dropped in 1998 and 1999. Activities in the new issues market improved but started declining in 2008 as a result of financial meltdown. The entry of some corporate entities into the Nigerian capital market after the deregulation of the market contributed to the upsurge witnessed in the market. Between 1988 and 1998, new issues grew remarkably from 400 million to 15,018.1 million in 1998, but fell to 12,038.5 million in 1999. On the aggregate, 355 new issues of 28,527.9 million shares valued at 56994.0 million were offered for subscription between 1990 and 1999. Transactions in the secondary market also showed remarkable growth. A total of 1,528.4 million shares valued at 37,488.8 million in 5,855.7 deals were traded between 1988 and 1998. Transactions in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) grew from 21.5 million shares valued at 249.5 million in 1988 to 33.4 million shares worth
553.2 million at the end of 1990. By 1995, the total volume of shares traded on the market had risen to 396.91 million shares valued at 838.8 million. Between 1996 and 1997, the average volume of shares traded was 1,062.7 million, valued at 8,564.1 million. Between 1998 and 1999 securities traded averaged 3,025.7 million shares, valued at 13,826.6 million, while transactions in equities dominated the market’ during the period of analysis. The downturn in stock market activities, which started in late- January, 2011 continued during February and severely constrained growth of the Nigerian stock market. The stock market continued to suffer from low liquidity arising from low incomes and reduced savings, mixed performance by quoted companies and profit taking/loss cutting. The scenario continued to dampen investors’ confidence. The stock market recorded turnover of 6.5 billion shares valued at N60.61 billion in 119,477 deals during February in contrast to a total of 10.84 billion shares valued at N104.1 billion exchanged during January in 139,950 deals. Consequently, the volume traded, value traded and number of deals dropped by 40.05%, 42% and 15% respectively, a reversal of the growth by 63.53%, 83.62% and 25.95%, respectively in the preceding month. The stock market recorded 19 trading days compared with 20 trading days in January. There were no transactions through the stock market on the
Federal Government Development Stocks, sub-National Bonds, Industrial Loans and Preference Stocks sectors. Aggregate stock market turnover between January and February were 17.334 billion shares valued at N164.7 billion exchanged in 259,427 deals. In the comparable period during 2010, the market recorded turnover of 16.14 billion shares valued at N100.8 billion in 429,306 deals. The Banking sector was the most active, trading 12.57 billion shares valued at N114.1 billion in 154,096 trades. Thus, the Banking sector accounted for 73% of the volume of equities traded, 69% of the value of equities traded and 59% of the number of trades during the two months. The sector was followed by the Insurance sector with a traded volume of 1.3 billion valued at N1.36 billion in 11,515 deals. The Food, Beverages and Tobacco subsector was third with a traded volume of 567.43 million valued at N12.02 billion in 20,399 deals.
In market capitalization, the market value of the 263 listed securities closed at N10.298 trillion, down by 2.7% from the N10.583 trillion recorded in January 2011. Market capitalization had in January increased by 6.7% over the December 2010 closing value. The decline in market capitalization in February resulted for the decline in the prices of most equities coupled with the delisting of one matured FGN Bond. The 217 listed equities accounted for N8.32 trillion or 80.84% of the market capitalization down by 3.04% from the N8.6 trillion recorded in January. Equity market capitalization had in January increased by 8.4%.
Therefore, it would be interesting to explore the effect of these oil price shocks on stock market dynamics. Hence this study examines the impact of oil price shocks on stock market dynamics in Nigeria.
STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
The impact of oil price shocks on oil sector stock prices in developing countries has not been sufficiently covered in the literature especially in the area of tracing out oil blocks and the financial bonds hence, the present study further attempts to determine the dynamic impact of effects of oil price shocks on oil sector stock prices in Nigeria. The oil price shock of 1973 and the subsequent recession gave rise to a plethora of studies analyzing the effects of oil price increases on the economy. The
early studies included Pieerce and Enzler (1974, Rasche and Tatom (1977), Mork and Hall (1980), and Darby (1982), all of which documented and explained the inverse relationship between oil price increases and aggregate economic activity. Later empirical studies such as, Gisser and Goodwin (1986) and the study on energy Modeling Forum as documented in Hickman et al. (1987) confirmed the inverse relationship between oil prices and aggregate economic activity. Darby (1982), Burbidge and Harrison (1984), and Bruno and Sachs (1982, 1985) documented similar oil price economy relationships in cross-country analysis. Hamilton (1983) made a definitive contribution by extending the analysis to show that all but one of the recessions were preceded by rising oil prices and those other business cycle variables could not account for the recessions. This is also evident in the current economic meltdown. Several different channels have been proposed to account for the inverse relationship between oil price movements and aggregate economic activity. The most basic is the classic supply side effect in which rising oil prices are indicative of the reduced availability of a basic input to production. Other explanations include income transfers from the oil importing nations to the oil- exporting nations, a real balance effect and monetary policy. Of these explanations, the classic supply-side effect best explains why rising oil prices slows GDP growth and stimulates inflation. Rising oil prices can be indicative of a classic supply side shock that reduces potential output, as in Rasche and Taton (1977 and 1981), Barro (1984) and Brown and Yucel (1999). Rising oil prices signal that increased scarcity of energy is a basic input to production.
The oil prices fluctuate due to several macroeconomic and geopolitical issues that are sometimes beyond the control of oil producers or consumers. The impact of high oil prices is likely to be even more severe in countries that are overly dependent on oil and/or are heavily debt-burdened, a situation that characterizes the Nigerian economy. On the other hand, while oil-exporting countries obviously benefit from high oil prices, economies that are heavily reliant on oil exports can also become vulnerable to the Dutch disease. Oil used to produce the final good is either imported or locally produced, depending on whether the country is a net importer or a net exporter of oil. In oil importing countries, the government practices local currency pricing (LCP), buying oil at the world price, and reselling it to domestic firms at the
domestic price but in oil exporting countries such as Nigeria, it is assumed that the oil industry is owned by the government, which sells oil to the rest of the world at the world price, and to domestic firms at the domestic price. These two need not be identical even after converting the world price to domestic currency. Depending on how the government sets, pass-through from the world price to the local price of oil will be complete or incomplete.
Nevertheless, it have been observed by most researchers that for such an oil exporting economy as Nigeria, there exist a direct relationship between the international oil price and its economy since it is solely dependent on oil revenue for its fiscal outlook. Ayadi (2005) used a standard VAR process to analyze directly the effect of oil price shocks for Nigeria over the 1980-2004 periods, and his findings maintained the direct relationship between oil price shocks and Nigerian economy.
The issue of oil price shocks and oil sector stock prices, it effects on economy has posed serious concern to many policy makers and financial experts. This is due to the fact that in recent years, some studies have tended to focus majorly on developed economies such as the European, Asian and Latin American emerging markets and shown significant relationships between oil price changes and emerging stock markets. For instance, Papapetrou (2001) showed a significant relationship between oil price changes and stock markets in Greece. Basher and Sadorsky (2006) reach the same conclusion for other emerging stock markets using an international multifactor model. However, less attention has been given to smaller emerging markets, like the Nigerian capital market hence, the need to explore the major causes of the stock market dynamics in Nigeria.
Indeed, previously, the world has witnessed an extraordinary collapse of financial institutions, loss in asset value/share price particularly of mortgage related securities, stock market declines, speculative bubbles and currency crisis, among others. For example, Nigeria has witnessed a sudden decline in oil prices from the peak of US$147 per barrel in July 2008 to US$40 per barrel in February 2009. Also, the economy has experienced decline of the value of stocks prices in its capital markets in the same period. The stock prices witnessed significant bearish trends in the previous periods coupled with the fluctuations of the international oil prices. The
trend of demand and supply in the global economy coupled with activities of OPEC consistently affects the price of oil. The recent changes in oil prices in the global economy are so rapid and unprecedented. However, the current global economic melt down suddenly counteracted the skyrocketing oil price. At the beginning of the crisis oil price crashed below $40/b in the world market which had serious consequences on Nigeria’s fiscal budget and which led to the downward review of the budget oil benchmark price. Today oil price is oscillating between $60/b and $75/b. This rapid change has become a great concern to researcher; therefore a study of this kind is timely.
Against this background, therefore, this study seeks plausible answers to the following research questions; the questions are:
⦁ What is the causal links between oil prices and oil sector stock returns in Nigeria?
⦁ What is the dynamic impact of previous oil prices on the oil sector stock prices fluctuations in Nigeria?
⦁ Do oil price shocks contribute significantly more to changes in oil sector stock returns in Nigeria?
Topology of Shocks in Nigeria
S/N Shock Origin Immediate
1 Crude Oil Price OPEC decision to quadruple the price
of crude oil: 1973
2 Low crude oil demand Another round of
crude oil price increase: 1979 World economic recession
3 Foreign debt Fiscal policy stance Financing socio- economic
4 Inappropriate policy Poor macroeconomic
management Macroeconomic instability
5 Rural-Urban movement Pressure on socio- economic
6 Terms of trade Currency
7 Changes in economic structure Structural
adjustment programme (SAP) Mixed grill
8 Institutional Transition from state-controlled to market-based
economy Sale of government owned companies, loss of job
OBJECTIVE OF STUDY
Based on the above statement of the problem, the broad objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil price shocks on oil sector stock prices in Nigeria. This study seeks to find the following specific objectives;
⦁ To determine the impact of oil price shocks on oil sector stock prices in Nigeria?
⦁ To determine the dynamic impact of previous oil prices on oil sector stock price fluctuations in Nigeria..
⦁ To determine whether oil price shocks contribute significantly more to changes in oil sector stock returns in Nigeria.
⦁ To determine the policy implications of such response on Nigerian economy.
STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS
Ho1: There’s no impact of oil price shocks on oil sector stock prices in Nigeria
Ho2: There is no dynamic impact of previous oil prices on oil sector stock prices fluctuation in Nigeria.
Ho3: Oil price shocks do not contribute significantly than changes in oil sector stock returns in Nigeria.
SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY
This study will be relevant and essential since it is meant to provide an insight and the direction of effect of oil price shocks on oil sector stock prices in Nigeria. A study of this kind is expected to provide useful information to both government and most policy makers in Nigeria.
In addition, the research findings and recommendations of this work will serve as a reference source and a point of departure for further research.
SCOPE OF STUDY
The study would span the period 2000-2010, making use of high frequency weekly data with focus on detailed analysis on the effect of oil price shocks on oil sector stock prices in Nigeria..