TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE TREATMENT OF SOME COMMON DISEASES (A CASE STUDY OF KWARA STATE POLYTECHNIC MEDICAL CENTRE, ILORIN)


TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE TREATMENT OF SOME COMMON DISEASES (A CASE STUDY OF KWARA STATE POLYTECHNIC MEDICAL CENTRE, ILORIN)  

ABSTRACT

This study out to establish the current trend of most common ill-health among the students of kwara state polytechnic Ilorin as well as the student patronize the medical centre within a define time frame. the least square approach were employed which revealed the present of trend and season effect on the data basically to be able to forecast for the subsequent years

TABLE OF CONTENT

Title page 

Certification i

Dedication ii

Acknowledgement iii-vi

Abstract v

Table of content vi

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 introduction 1

1.1 Hint on the polytechnic medical centre    2

1.2 Aims and study objectives 3 

1.3 Source of data 3

1.4 limitation of the study 4

1.5 Definition of some terms 4

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 literature review 8

CHAPTER THREE

3.0 methodology/ presentation of data 11

3.1 Methodology 12

3.2 index estimation 13

3.3 forecast elements 14

CHAPTER FOUR 

4.0 Analysis of data 18

4.1 Estimation of the parameters 20

4.2 Quarterly Presentation of data 21

4.3 Yearly and monthly presentation of data 22

4.4 Forecast for the two subsequent 

Years using regression model22

CHAPTER FIVE  

5.0 Summary of findings 28

5.1 Conclusion 29

5.2 Recommendation 30

Reference31

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION   

            This project is concerned with the health problem that are common among the student particularly, affecting the student of kwara state polytechnic Ilorin. Hence there is need to define health.

Health is a state of optimal physical, manta and social well being and not mainly the absence of disease and infirmly. it is a condition in which the function of the body are duly discharged.

The state of health is much more then freedom from disease. To live a good state of health, one must avoid dirty environment and take to well hygienically prepared food and water which are germ and bacteria free.

HINTS ON THE POLYTECHINC MEDICAL CENTRE 

Kwara state polytechnic was established in the year 1972. According to a popular adage which says “health is medical of wealth the institution find it necessary and essential to establish its own medical centre, just for student staff needs.

The clinic was established in 1972 when Kwara state polytechnic was officially commissioned. The operation in the clinic state with one doctor, two non-professional members of staff and five nurse. The increase in the students admitted yearly lead to the staff. Both skilled and unskilled are worked there. There are five sector which are healthier by the principal medical officer (doctor).he is the centre consultants. the centre bag is medical second section where we have statistical record of the register and patient, there is nursing section and a matron who   is the chief nursing officer  health this section. There the doctor treats many according to the prescription. The fourth section is pharmacy which is to compound and dispend the drops the last section is laboratory where investigations is been carried out such on stool, and urine.

1.2      AIMS AND STUDY OBJECTIVE 

The study is emphasized the importance of setting cp medical centre in the campus. It showed the picture of medical patient attendance in the clinic in a given period of time. It analyzed the trend of fluctuation in the number of patient’s attendance in the clinic at every season.

The study is designed to give a clear picture of the problem encountered by the patient, clinic and probably solution with progress so far since its establishment.

1.3   SOURSE OF DATA

The data used in this project (study) is mainly collected from the clinic record office of Kwara state polytechnic consists of all the daily attendance of the patients in the clinic between January to December 2008to 2012.

1.4   LIMITATION OF THE STUDY.

The intent ion of the study was to cover up to nothing less than (10) years duration in order to available one. Because keeping of a record of patients that called which implies that there is no separated statistics for the patients that called. 

There, need to write a letter of request and take some other processes to ensure the data needed was released.

1.6 DEFINATION OF SOME TERMS.

* MALARIA – is a mosquito-borne infection disease of human and other animals caused by protests (a type of micro organism) of the genus plasmodium. It begins with introduce the protest through saliva in to the circulatory system in the produce. malaria cause symptoms that typical individual fever and headache which in severe case can progress to coma or death malaria is a parasitic infection that most causative organism is plasmodium falciparum  which is carried by mosquitoes. It is also characterized by chills fever and sweating occurring at interval which depends on the time require for development of a new generation of parasite in the body.

* BODY PAIN is an unpleasant feeling often caused by intense or damage stimuli such as stubbing a toe burring a finger, putting alcohol on a cut and bumping the “funny bone” and. it can also be define as an unpleasant sensory and emotion experience association with actual or potential tissue damage or described in term of such damage. This is an actual modifiable infection sickness of the topic cause by a view through suffering of mind or body and cause be transmitted by a mosquito.

*DIARRHEA- it means an increase frequency or decrease constancy of bowel movement. Diarrhea is also classified by physicians into acute which last one or two week and chronic which continue for longer than 2 or 3 weeks viral and bacterial infection are the most common causes of acute diarrhea. This from the chief symptom of several diseases it is the looseness of the bowel l.e too frequent and too watery emoting of bowel.

* DYSENTARY- dysentery broadly refers to gastrointestinal disorder characterized by inflammation of the intestines, chiefly the colon. it also present in  loose, watery stools. Also called bloody fox it is an infection disease especially of the colon and attended by pain abdomens Tenesmos and frequent stool containing blood and mucus. The causative agents re bacteria agents are bacteria, protozoa or parasitic worm.

* COUGH: a cough is a free full release of air from the lungs that lungs that can be heard. Coughing protects the respiratory system by clearing it of irritants and secretion.

* COLD: - It means having a low or inadequate temperature active or feeling a sensation of coldness or having been made cold. A mild viral infection involving the nose and respiratory passages. 

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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE TREATMENT OF SOME COMMON DISEASES (A CASE STUDY OF KWARA STATE POLYTECHNIC MEDICAL CENTRE, ILORIN)



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